Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Doctors notching wins in a war that can't be won

It is incumbent upon us to promote the desirability of alternative solutions to conflict




At the recent Armistice Day centenary commemorations, I had the privilege of attending a splendid rendition of the concert An Australian War Requiem in Sydney’s Town Hall.
The requiem to the nation’s fallen soldiers in World War I is in three tableaux; the first concerns the horror of war, the second focuses on sons and mothers, and the third — and most dramatic — is a reflection on loss.
The event led me to reflect on the far-reaching role ­doctors have played throughout history in times of war, and continue to play when it comes to human horrors.
Our role is multifaceted and spans the breadth of war.
Our first contribution, of course, is to do our best to heal those who are physically and mentally injured by war, and to understand, as best we can, the awful circumstances they have endured.
One such doctor was New Zealand ENT surgeon Sir Harold Gillies. Working on the Great War’s Western Front, he witnessed attempts to repair the ravages of facial injuries and, as a result, became a pioneer in plastic surgery.1


A plaque honours Sir Harold Gillies. Photo: Simon Harriyott/Wikimedia Commons. https://bit.ly/2TBAgLu

He opened a hospital in the UK after the Battle of the Somme in 1916, where he treated thousands of cases of jaw and facial mutilation.
In World War II, Australian surgeon Sir Ernest Edward ‘Weary’ Dunlop was renowned for his leadership while being held prisoner by the Japanese.
He was hailed by other POWs in the prison camps and jungle hospitals on the Burma-Thailand railway for being “a lighthouse of sanity in a universe of madness and suffering”.2


Kanchanaburi war cemetery, where thousands of Allied POWs who died on the notorious Thailand to Burma death railway are buried.

Our second contribution comes in the aftermath of war when we look at the reasons for negative behaviour in affected servicemen and women and try to assist them if they emerge shell-shocked or, in modern parlance, with PTSD.
Research suggests that even medieval soldiers suffered from the psychological impact of war despite their training from a young age and being surrounded by death.
In 15th-century France, people believed that warfare caused a kind of madness and soldiers who went “berserk” were celebrated. However, non-combatants who were traumatised by war were pitied or ridiculed.3
Today PTSD remains a major therapeutic challenge, and not only for war veterans. A Google search of the phrase ‘Australian doctors treating PTSD’ yields a vast number of entries concerning psychiatric treatment, medication, lifestyle and other treatments.
Finally, we are bound to share our medical insight into the real cost of war with our communities.
Doctors in the US recently engaged in the modern-day version of this duty of care when, just a few days before the Armistice Day centenary, they took to Twitter to reveal the day-to-day horror of the country’s gun crime.4
Fuelled by the US gun lobby’s call for doctors to “stay in their lane” on the country’s gun control debate, dozens of emergency care medics posted photos of themselves working while covered in patients’ blood as a visual reminder of the human cost of America’s shooting epidemic.
Away from the front-line, numerous doctors have also been honoured for championing a reduction in the engines of war.
SA palliative care physician Professor Ian Maddocks was president of the Medical Association for Prevention of War when it received an Australian Peace Medal, and vice-president of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War when it received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1985.5
And, more recently, Professor Tilman Ruff, an infectious disease and public health doctor from the University of Melbourne, was chair of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons — the recipient of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize.6
It is important for doctors, who see the damage, to make clear to our communities and their political representatives the absolute desirability of finding alternative solutions to conflict.
But the reality is that in a world of scarce resources, war will likely remain part of the human condition, and will not, unfortunately, be going away. We must therefore remain ready to meet its challenges.
Requiescat in pace.

Professor Leeder is an emeritus professor of public health and community medicine at the Menzies Centre for Health Policy and School of Public Health, University of Sydney. 

Published in Medical Observer 26 November 2018
https://www.medicalobserver.com.au/views/doctors-notching-wins-war-cant-be-won

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

It's counter-intuitive but getting healthier should make us worry




Unlike in the past, modern public health programs have led to more poverty, unemployment and a rapid rise in chronic illnesses, says a leading GP
Confronted with challenges in our daily work, reinforced by depressing news about global politics, it is understandable that we feel like hunkering down and concentrating on local distractions, such as family and valuable friendships — not that these ‘distractions’ are uniformly free of challenges, of course.
But what is occurring globally establishes a context within which we all work and there can be value in looking above the parapet, keeping an eye open for a sniper in the distance.
Adjunct Professor Thomas Bollyky, a senior fellow and director of the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC, has written a challenging essay in the latest issue of council publication Foreign Affairs.  The article is both informative and deeply disturbing. Entitled ‘Health without wealth’, Bollyky addresses “the worrying paradox of modern medical miracles”.
“For the first time in recorded history,” he states “bacteria, viruses and other infectious agents do not cause the majority of deaths or disabilities in any region of the world.” This infamy belongs to chronic illness.
Bollyky takes an historical view of how the vast improvements of the past century in health occurred in the US and Europe as a result of controlling communicable diseases.
These measures included “government-mandated measures — such as milk pasteurisation, laws against overcrowded tenements, and investments in clean water and sewage treatment systems — and better social norms around hygiene, childcare and girls’ education”. Half of the improvement in life expectancy in developing countries between World War II and 1970 was due to these means — and not to antibiotics and immunisation, Bollyky claims.
These public health measures had a strong relationship with prosperity. They occurred because governments invested in water and sewers and public housing. And, in return, a healthier workforce contributed to prosperity.
Big cities, the engines of innovation and achievement, became increasingly affluent because of rising productivity and were able to complete the circle of public health investment leading to societal economic benefit.

Related reading:

However, modern-day public health programs to address the likes of malaria, HIV and child immunisation have undoubtedly saved lives and increased life expectancy, but have failed to increase prosperity. “The recent hard-won gains threaten to bring a host of new and destabilising problems,” Bollyky writes.
This is because such programs, which are often paid for by outside agencies rather than local governments, have not automatically led to greater productivity, more employment or the expansion of local health services. In fact, the situation has led to more poverty, unemployment and a rapid rise in chronic illnesses as a result of changes to food supply, greater availability of tobacco and housing shortages.
In this setting, chronic disorders have flourished and a new generation of peri-urban slums have developed.
In Australia, we enjoy the ability to treat these conditions and we have succeeded in pushing many of them into the senior years. But think back to the 1950s and ’60s when our therapeutic abilities were much less and where death from an MI or stroke was common among middle-aged men. That is how it is in many less economically developed nations now — a huge loss of productive workforce in middle age.
Bollyky states that deaths from hypertensive heart disease among people under 60 have increased by nearly 50% in sub-Saharan Africa in the past 25 years.
“In 1990, heart disease, cancer and other non-communicable diseases caused about a quarter of deaths and disabilities in poor countries,” he adds. “By 2040, that number is expected to jump as high as 80% in countries that are still quite poor.”
The remedy, Bollyky suggests, is a more comprehensive approach to international aid — ensuring that investments help countries to improve their healthcare systems, make their cities more liveable and “enable their companies to employ more people more productively”.
While our preventive approaches to chronic illness in Australia could do with more money, we can be thankful that we have healthcare that enables us to manage chronic ailments, especially through general practice.
However, in this global era of chronic illness, it would be wise for governments to remember that spending on healthcare and enjoying prosperity are two sides of the same coin.

Professor Stephen Leeder is an emeritus professor of public health and community medicine at the Menzies Centre for Health Policy and School of Public Health, University of Sydney.

Published in the Medical Observer 18 October 2018 https://bit.ly/2PwaJVK

Paying for Performance


Published in Australian Medicine.  15 October 2018.  https://bit.ly/2qNjEmN

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

A revolution is coming, warns emeritus professor


You're out of touch if you believe medicine will remain unscathed amid the rise of artificial intelligence, he insists
So you thought that My Health Record was complicated and risky? In the digital revolution, it is chicken feed. 
Steady yourself and gird your loins, because artificial intelligence (AI) is the big game that’s coming to town soon and it can be challenging.
How close are we? A statement in the IT world called Moore’s law observes that the number of transistors that can be placed on a single integrated circuit doubles about every two years.  
It was named after one of the co-founders of Intel, Gordon Moore, following his 1965 paper. It means that the same-sized circuit you were using last year has doubled its capacity this year. 
According to Google, your smartphone has enough computing power to fire a person to the moon.
How long Moore’s law will apply is unknown because the space on printed circuits is finite, but we do know that today’s computers have the same processing power as the human brain. 
In the August issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, Kevin Drum, a 60-year-old Californian political blogger and columnist who knows a lot about Silicon Valley, credits the immense social progress of the 19th century to the Industrial Revolution.  
“Without it, there’s no capitalist revolution because agrarian states don’t need one. Without it, there’s no rising middle class and no real pressure for democracy,” he wrote in an essay called ‘Welcome to the Digital Revolution'.
“The key drivers of this era were the steam engine, germ theory, electricity and railroads.”
And now? The computers to support AI are ready.
Their power is measured in floating point operations — known in the trade as ‘flops’ — which basically means that they work very fast. For example, one second is the equivalent of about 10-100 petaflops.  
The capacity of the human brain is said to be able to handle 100 petaflops per second. That is, it can perform 100,000,000,000,000,000 operations per second.  
According to Mr Drum: “A computer with this capacity, unfortunately, is the size of a living room, costs $200 million and generates electricity bills of about $5 million (a year).” 
Software development is critical and AI experts say there is a 50% chance that AI will be able to perform all human tasks by 2060, he adds.
“The digital revolution is going to be the biggest geopolitical revolution in human history”, he says, adding that PricewaterhouseCoopers has predicted that 38% of all jobs in the US are at high risk of automation by the early 2030s. 
The effects on human employment will be profound.
Within a decade, he says, long-haul truck drivers will be displaced by driverless technology and similar technology will knock out the jobs the displaced drivers might have taken up. We need new politics.
Anyone imagining that medicine and medical practice will not be profoundly altered is out of touch. 
Our eldest son Nick, a vice-president with Google, recently told me that the AI development of the driverless car was now sophisticated enough to engage in ethical reasoning.  
For example, how should an AI-driven vehicle respond to an impending crash where either the humans in that car, or the colliding vehicle, will sustain a fatal injury? With sacrifice, altruism or self-interest?
And, if ethical reasoning can be used by AI for driving, then why not in medicine?
The two most important developments for the 21st century will be AI-driven mass unemployment and fossil-fuel-driven climate change, Mr Drum says.
A glimmer of hope is that AI might be able to solve climate change by scaling up wind and solar power.  
But what about medicine? Now, there’s the challenge for us doctors. 
At the very least, our medical education should accommodate more about the interface between practice and AI.
This must go way beyond the simplicities of how to use IT to include debating and considering the implications for what we do as doctors in this brave new world. 
What will ethical practice mean and how will we relate to AI in this pursuit? 
It’s time for a lot of serious and creative thinking. 
Source: Foreign Affairs 2018, online .
Related reading:
Published in The Medical Observer 13 August 2018 https://bit.ly/2PnMULp

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

TB and HIV - still miles to go


Published in Australian Medicine September 17 2018 https://bit.ly/2pja5uY